Chapter 46: Industrial ecology and integrated assessment: an integrated modeling approach for climate change
Michel G.J. den Elzen and Michiel Schaeﬀer This chapter describes the background and modeling approaches used in simple climate models (SCMs) (Harvey et al. 1997). In general, SCMs are the simpliﬁed models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide projections of the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, global mean temperature and sea-level change response using as input emissions scenarios describing the future developments in the emissions of greenhouse gases. SCMs are computationally more eﬃcient than more complex, computationally expensive three-dimensional models such as atmosphere– ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). SCMs are therefore particularly suitable for multiple scenario studies, uncertainty assessments and analysis of feedbacks. The SCM approach is illustrated by applying one such model, meta-IMAGE (den Elzen 1998), to uncertainty analysis. The SCM meta-IMAGE is a simpliﬁed version of the more complex climate assessment model IMAGE 2. IMAGE 2 aims at a more thorough description of the complex, longterm dynamics of the biosphere–climate system at a geographically explicit level (0.5°ϫ0.5 ° latitude–longitude grid) (Alcamo et al. 1996, 1998). Meta-IMAGE is a more ﬂexible, transparent and interactive simulation tool that adequately reproduces the IMAGE-2.1 projections of global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, temperature increase and sea-level rise for the various IMAGE 2.1 emissions scenarios (see Figure 45.1). Meta-IMAGE consists of an integration of a global carbon cycle model (den Elzen et al. 1997), an atmospheric chemistry model and a climate model (upwellingdiﬀusion energy balance box model of Wigley and Schlesinger...
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