Forecasting Labour Markets in OECD Countries

Forecasting Labour Markets in OECD Countries

Measuring and Tackling Mismatches

Labour Markets and Employment Policy series

Edited by Michael Neugart and Klaus Schömann

This book offers a wide-ranging overview of the state of labour market forecasting in selected OECD countries. Besides presenting forecasting models, the contributions provide an introduction to past experiences of forecasting, highlight the requirements for building appropriate data sets and present the most up-to-date forecasts available.

Chapter 2: Occupations and Skills in the United States: Projection Methods and Results through 2008

Burt S. Barnow

Subjects: social policy and sociology, labour policy


2. Occupations and skills in the United States: projection methods and results through 2008 Burt S. Barnow 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION AND MAJOR SUBSTANTIVE RESULTS Introduction Like many other nations, the United States has strong needs for information on what the labour market will look like in the future. Potential consumers of such information include employers, who must decide where to locate their firms and what production technology to use, and government institutions responsible for the education and training of the labor force, to make sure that the education and training provided corresponds to the economy’s needs. This chapter has been prepared as part of a project that provides comparisons of the occupational projections systems in eight Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries.1 This initial section provides the major results of the most recent occupational projections produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the United States.2 These projections, released in November 1999, cover the ten-year period from 1998 to 2008. The projections include the size and composition of the labour force, employment by industry, and occupational employment. Occupational projections are not available by gender, but the distribution by sex of broad categories of occupations are presented along with the projected occupational growth rates. Occupational growth patterns for broad educational/skill groupings are also presented in this section. The second section of the chapter presents the projections methodology and the employment projections. The methodology is described in some detail, including the parties involved in making the projections and the...

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