Forecasting Labour Markets in OECD Countries

Forecasting Labour Markets in OECD Countries

Measuring and Tackling Mismatches

Labour Markets and Employment Policy series

Edited by Michael Neugart and Klaus Schömann

This book offers a wide-ranging overview of the state of labour market forecasting in selected OECD countries. Besides presenting forecasting models, the contributions provide an introduction to past experiences of forecasting, highlight the requirements for building appropriate data sets and present the most up-to-date forecasts available.

Chapter 6: A Review of Occupational Employment Forecasting for Ireland

Jerry Sexton

Subjects: social policy and sociology, labour policy

Extract

Jerry Sexton 1 BACKGROUND: OBJECTIVES This chapter describes recent work carried out in Ireland in the area of occupational employment forecasting. These activities were initiated in 1990 following an approach from the National Employment and Training Authority (FÁS) to The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) suggesting a joint exercise designed to produce medium-term forecasts of employment classified by occupation. The objectives set out in the agreement subsequently entered into envisaged the compilation of occupational forecasts at a relatively broad level of detail designed more as an aid to strategic labour market planning rather than providing very detailed projections of the numbers in different skill categories. It was agreed that the results of the various studies would be published in a special joint publication series – FÁS/ESRI Manpower Forecasting Studies Series. To date nine reports have been issued, including four sets of occupational employment forecasts. The most recent of the latter, which contains forecasts for 2005, was published in April 2000. The full set of publications is listed in Appendix II. It will be noted that, apart from reports containing actual forecasts, the list of publications contains other reports designed to shed further light on the forecasts provided. For example, the most recent publication (Report No. 9, issued in April 2001) contains occupational analyses of gross labour force flows, job openings and human resource requirements over the period from 1990 to 2005. The main objective of the occupational employment forecasting project is to develop a system which...

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