Forecasting Labour Markets in OECD Countries

Forecasting Labour Markets in OECD Countries

Measuring and Tackling Mismatches

Labour Markets and Employment Policy series

Edited by Michael Neugart and Klaus Schömann

This book offers a wide-ranging overview of the state of labour market forecasting in selected OECD countries. Besides presenting forecasting models, the contributions provide an introduction to past experiences of forecasting, highlight the requirements for building appropriate data sets and present the most up-to-date forecasts available.

Chapter 7: Beyond Manpower Planning: A Labour Market Model for the Netherlands and its Forecasts to 2006

Frank Cörvers, Andries de Grip and Hans Heijke

Subjects: social policy and sociology, labour policy


7. Beyond manpower planning: a labour market model for the Netherlands and its forecasts to 2006 Frank Cörvers, Andries de Grip and Hans Heijke1 1 INTRODUCTION A well-trained workforce is generally seen as an important precondition for achieving economic growth. But a workforce with higher education does not necessarily imply higher economic growth. The productive value of education is in fact dependent not only on the level of the education but also on the subjects studied and on which occupation is practised with that education (cf. Hartog, 2000). An improved match between the educational background of the workers and the skill requirements of their jobs therefore increases the productivity of the labour force. To the extent that improved better worker–job matches are reflected in higher wages and fit in with the occupational preferences of the workers, the labour force will be more satisfied in its educational and occupational choices. The allocation process on the labour market is characterized by serious imperfections. Due to the heterogeneous character of the market and a range of inflexibilities of both supply and demand, the labour market could suffer serious mismatch phenomena. While some workers face unemployment, firms may have recruitment problems for other skill categories. For this reason public policies continuously pay attention to the coordination between the educational system on the one hand, which largely determines the skills supplied, and, on the other hand, the demand in the labour market for the various skill categories. In the...

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