The Economic Prospects of the CIS

The Economic Prospects of the CIS

Sources of Long Term Growth

Edited by Gur Ofer and Richard Pomfret

This book brings together ten original studies on the transition and growth experience and the foundations for long-term growth of the newly independent states created by the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Chapter 9: TajikistanÂês growth performance: the first decade of transition

Khojamahmad Umarov and Alexandre Repkine


9. Tajikistan’s growth performance: the first decade of transition Khojamahmad Umarov and Alexandre Repkine Tajikistan is located in Central Asia and borders Afghanistan, China, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Mountains and highland deserts comprise 93 per cent of its territory. The climate is continental and arid, as a result of the country’s location in the inner part of the continental land mass, far from oceans. The country lies in the common hydrographical basin of the Amudarya and Syrdarya rivers, both of which flow north-westwards into the Aral Sea. Irrigation allows for the production of wheat, cotton, grapes, fruit and vegetables. Tajikistan’s population is around 6.35 million and is growing relatively fast at 1.3 per cent annually and the average family size is large. Rural population prevails and its size relative to the urban one continues to grow, the main reason being the ongoing de-industrialization of the economy. A substantial part of the labour force has migrated to the Russian Federation in search of employment. Real GDP collapsed drastically between 1991 and 2000, contracting by about 60 per cent. GDP per capita fell correspondingly from US$462 in 1991 to US$190 in 2000. The standard of living in the country is thus one of the lowest in the world, with 96 per cent of the population surviving on incomes below the minimal consumption basket. Average monthly wages are US$10. 1. THE EVOLUTION AND STRUCTURAL CHANGES OF OUTPUT, 1989–2000 The Collapse of Output and its Underlying Factors The depth of the...

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