Identifying Possibilities Using Long-Term Energy Scenarios
ESRI Studies Series on the Environment
Chapter 5: A sustainable-development scenario in detail
In this chapter, we describe one sustainable-development (SD) scenario in detail. The purpose of this description is to provide the readers with a basis for a more detailed judgmental assessment of the scenario and its determining assumptions. We will present these from a policy perspective; that is, we emphasize the description of those parameters and variables that appear particularly interesting for policy making. These include overall and per capita economic growth as well as technological progress. Of these, technological progress is the one that is the focus of our modelling and assumed to be inﬂuenced by policy making. In our interpretation, policy making aimed at the support of appropriate technologies can help pave the way for sustainable development. As a means of emphasizing salient features of the SD scenario described in detail in this chapter, we contrast them with assumptions that lead to a nonsustainable scenario in a similar ‘world’; that is, in a world in which the key boundary conditions are by and large the same and just the policies are diﬀerent. To emphasize the policy orientation, we illustrate how diﬀerent policies contribute to the diﬀerent developments of the scenarios. The assumed policies diﬀer with respect to the direction of technological innovations. Two diﬀerent sets of assumptions regarding diﬀerent policy options lead once to an ‘oil and gas’-rich future (OG), and once to a ‘post-fossil fuel’ future (PF).1 The latter turns out to be an SD scenario. To express this policy...
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