Identifying Possibilities Using Long-Term Energy Scenarios
ESRI Studies Series on the Environment
A technical model description
Manfred Strubegger, Gerhard Totschnig and Bing Zhu 1. INTRODUCTION The main tool used for the generation of the scenario results presented in this book is the MESSAGE model. For many readers, the main part of the book will provide an adequate description of MESSAGE and its input data. However, more technically oriented readers may be interested in seeing a more detailed model speciﬁcation, which we therefore present in this appendix. MESSAGE (Model of Energy Supply Systems Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts) is a systems engineering optimization model used for medium to long-term energy planning, energy policy analysis and scenario development. The roots of its development go back to IIASA’s Energy Systems Program of the 1970s. MESSAGE has been used for many projects and scientiﬁc studies. More recent examples of these include the joint IIASA-WEC report on Global Energy Perspectives (Naki´ enovi´ c c et al., 1998), the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Naki´ enovi´ c c et al., 2000), and the IPCC Third Assessment Report (Metz et al., 2001).1 The most recent version of the model is known as MESSAGE V. MESSAGE ﬁnds the optimal ﬂow of energy from primary energy resources to useful energy demands, which is feasible in a mathematical and an engineering sense, and at the same time represents the investment choices that lead to the lowest cost of all feasible energy supply mixes to meet the given energy demand. Engineering feasibility is ensured by making energy ﬂows consistent with model constraints...
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