Table of Contents

Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics

Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics

Handbooks of Research Methods and Applications series

Edited by Nigar Hashimzade and Michael A. Thornton

This comprehensive Handbook presents the current state of art in the theory and methodology of macroeconomic data analysis. It is intended as a reference for graduate students and researchers interested in exploring new methodologies, but can also be employed as a graduate text. The Handbook concentrates on the most important issues, models and techniques for research in macroeconomics, and highlights the core methodologies and their empirical application in an accessible manner. Each chapter is largely self-contained, whilst the comprehensive introduction provides an overview of the key statistical concepts and methods. All of the chapters include the essential references for each topic and provide a sound guide for further reading.

Chapter 17: Forecasting in macroeconomics

Raffaella Giacomini and Barbara Rossi

Subjects: economics and finance, econometrics, research methods, research methods in economics

Extract

This chapter offers a review of forecasting methodologies and empirical applications that are useful for macroeconomists. The chapter is divided in two parts. The first part overviews econometric methods available for forecast evaluation, including both traditional methods as well as new methodologies that are robust to instabilities. We discuss their usefulness, their assumptions as well as their implementation, to provide practical guidance to macroeconomists. The second part addresses special issues of interest to forecasters, including forecasting output growth and inflation as well as the use of real-time data and structural models for forecasting.

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