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Spatial Scenarios in a Global Perspective

Spatial Scenarios in a Global Perspective

Europe and the Latin Arc Countries

New Horizons in Regional Science series

Edited by Roberto Camagni and Roberta Capello

This up-to-date and insightful book presents post-crisis scenarios for European regions with new methodologies and tools to support quantitative assessment and foresight. The aim is to develop regional forecasting methodologies and tools, appropriate to the regional-local scale but consistent with a general EU-wide approach. This effort is particularly important in a period of economic crisis, as an economic downturn generates high uncertainty about the future of economic systems, and consequently will determine the new winners and losers in a globalized world.

Chapter 5: Quantitative Foresights at Sub-regional Level: The Model and Estimation Results

Antonio Affuso, Roberto Camagni and Roberta Capello

Subjects: economics and finance, regional economics, urban and regional studies, regional economics


5. Quantitative foresights at subregional level: the model and estimation results Antonio Affuso, Roberto Camagni and Roberta Capello 5.1 MOVING FROM THE NUTS-2 TO THE NUTS-3 SCENARIO The methodology presented in the previous chapter enables identification of scenarios at regional level. An additional step is required in order to build scenarios at a more disaggregated territorial level of analysis such as that of NUTS-3. To this end, a simplified, extrapolative/comparative sub-model, the MAN-3 (MASST at NUTS-3) model has been implemented. The submodel is conceived so that that the main trends and driving forces present in each scenario are considered and included in the forecasting process, as well as the importance of the territorial specificities of the individual regions of the countries considered. The way in which the MAN-3 submodel is conceptualized makes it possible to replicate one of the most important characteristics of MASST; in fact, as in the case of the MASST model, the MAN-3 model aims at explaining the differential growth rates of each province with respect to its region on the basis of the structural characteristics and internal economic specificities of each area. The MAN-3 model is simpler than the MASST, in that the comprehensive interregional interaction logic of the latter (with the international interregional spillover effects) and its internal consistency among macroeconomic forecasts are not replicated in the MAN-3 sub-model. The MAN-3 sub-model makes it possible to obtain the GDP growth rates at NUTS-3. Differently from MASST, the sub-model at NUTS-3 is able to produce only...

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