Spatial Scenarios in a Global Perspective

Spatial Scenarios in a Global Perspective

Europe and the Latin Arc Countries

New Horizons in Regional Science series

Edited by Roberto Camagni and Roberta Capello

This up-to-date and insightful book presents post-crisis scenarios for European regions with new methodologies and tools to support quantitative assessment and foresight. The aim is to develop regional forecasting methodologies and tools, appropriate to the regional-local scale but consistent with a general EU-wide approach. This effort is particularly important in a period of economic crisis, as an economic downturn generates high uncertainty about the future of economic systems, and consequently will determine the new winners and losers in a globalized world.

Chapter 7: The Latin Arc

Antonio Affuso and Ugo Fratesi

Subjects: economics and finance, regional economics, urban and regional studies, regional economics


Antonio Affuso and Ugo Fratesi 7.1 INTRODUCTION In the previous chapters we have analysed the elements of territorial capital that play a role in explaining the differential growth rates of provinces with respect to their regions. As we have seen in Chapter 5, we are not able to capture all the effects. Some data, such as those describing the system of cultural elements and values which attribute sense and meaning to local practices and structures and define local identities, are not available, although they should be considered because they can boost the internal capacity to exploit local potentials. Hence, for exogenous reasons, the MAN-3 model is not able to take account of all the aspects of territorial capital which inspired its design. As we shall see at the end of this chapter, it is possible to overcome this limitation by means of a simple procedure able to take into account provincial specificities and which is labelled ‘fine-tuning’. This ought to provide a first response to the serious difficulty of considering all the variables affecting economic growth due to data problems and econometric issues which prevent the use of too many regressors at the same time. No scenario exercise, however, is fruitful if it is unable to increase understanding of the mechanisms which work at territorial level and bring policy consequences. This also requires information which is more place specific than that obtainable from pure modelling results. Whence derives the need to apply the scenarios to a specific territory and the...

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