Elgar original reference
Edited by Michael R. Redclift and Marco Grasso
Chapter 9: The impact of climate change on human security in Latin America and the Caribbean
Climate change is projected to have multiple impacts this century on international, national and human security. If ‘business as usual’ levels of greenhouse gas emissions continue, a catastrophic climate change scenario becomes increasingly possible, with climate hotspots (REC, 2011), water scarcity (UNEP, 2012), decline in food production, more extreme weather events (IPCC, 2012) and environmentally induced migration, particularly within and from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries (Oswald Spring et al., 2013; Serrano Oswald et al., 2013). Physical and societal climate change impacts have been projected (IPCC, 2007, 2007a), but non-linear changes may trigger tipping points (Lenton et al., 2008), which could have geopolitical effects for international, national and human security. LAC is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change despite the fact that the region’s greenhouse gas emissions represent an estimated11 percent of the global total (IDB, 2012). Climate projections for LAC indicate that towards the end of the century, temperature increases will vary between 1 degree and 6 degrees, according to the particular emissions scenario and area concerned (Magrin et al., 2007).
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