Chapter 4: Economic growth and emerging economies: introducing TIM BRIC
Emerging market economies, especially those that have collectively come to be known as the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), have garnered increasing attention from both public policy makers and academics from a variety of backgrounds and disciplines. In 2001, Jim O’Neil, head of Global Economic Research at Goldman Sachs, coined the term “BRIC” in a research paper that sought to predict the future economic contribution of the largest emerging market economies. The term “BRIC” was further galvanized in another Goldman Sachs research paper that predicted the BRIC economies would be larger than the combined economies of the G7 countries by 2050, with the Chinese economy surpassing the American economy as the largest in the world by 2041 (Wilson and Purushothaman, 2003). It is difficult to fathom that anyone at Goldman Sachs could have predicted how influential and institutionalized the term BRIC would become over a ten-year period. Given the difficulty of predicting the future economic growth of a nation, the somewhat myopic focus on the BRIC nations begs the question as to whether an emphasis on the BRIC countries has come at the expense of other emerging economies. This chapter uses both Neoclassical and New Growth Theory to compare and contrast 16 emerging economies in an attempt to reevaluate the proposed economic dominance of the BRIC nations, and identify other countries that have the potential to become significant economic forces by 2050.
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