The Future of Carbon-free Energy Technologies
The Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei series on Economics, the Environment and Sustainable Development
Edited by Valentina Bosetti and Michela Catenacci
Chapter 1: Expert Judgment Elicitation Protocols
While past data analysis can provide extremely valuable information on past dynamics and technology development, it is paramount to recognize the distorting effect of uncertainty on innovating firms’ behaviors and its determining role on current and future innovation processes. In order to account for uncertainty and to fill the lack of empirical or modeling data, the ICARUS project resorted to experts’ elicitations, which have been successfully used to collect information on future trends of technology costs. Expert judgments are the expressions of informed opinion that experts make based on their knowledge and experience with respect to technical problems (Hogarth, 1987; Morgan and Henrion, 1990; Cooke, 1991). Eliciting experts’ judgements means collecting subjective probabilities that a specific event will take place in the future, through specific methods of verbal or written communication. Experts’ judgements are particularly useful and are often required in probabilistic decision-making and in the evaluation of risks. They can fill the lack of information or complement other available data based on models’ predictions, thus providing an additional source of information.