Edited by Frank Whelon Wayman, Paul R. Williamson, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Solomon Polachek
Chapter 2: Organizing diverse contributions to global forecasting
The elements that may contribute to computational global societal– environmental modeling and forecasting – herein simply “modeling’’ or “global modeling” where clarity permits – take the form of contributions from greatly diverse sources. Some of these (somewhat skewed in the direction of social inquiries) are speculatively indicated by the categories in Table 2.1. This chapter offers a set of themes, set forth below, for connecting such elements. This particular set of ideas is not meant to be unique; there may be, no doubt are, other ways of doing the connecting; nor will the present discussion do more than briefly treat the themes to be considered. The organizing principle that I propose is that the various elements may be described and compared in terms of the themes. This suggested organization is, thus, a very loose one. It is not a substitute for the ideal of a consistent, coherent, validated, maximally compacted organization of elements, but my suggestion is that the indicated comparative descriptions may help move global modeling in the direction of that ideal. The rationale for these particular themes is that to do successful global modeling one needs to look, anew, at modern physical science as both exemplar and basis of global knowledge.
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