New Horizons in the Economics of Sport series
Edited by Plácido Rodríguez, Stefan Késenne and Ruud Koning
Chapter 11: Economic prediction of sport performances from the Beijing Olympics to the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa: the notion of surprising sporting outcomes
A model used for successfully predicting Beijing Olympics’ medal wins is adapted to check whether economic variables could be good predictors of soccer World Cup outcomes. Some ‘footballistic’ variables must be added with regard to predicting the outcome of a single sport discipline contest. The model does not perform as well with the soccer World Cup as with the Olympics. This is owing to surprising sporting outcomes, a notion not previously analysed. The chapter elaborates on such notion and suggests a simple metrics, then concludes that economic predictions of sporting performances must be treated with caution.
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