Frameworks and Policy Applications in Freight and Passenger Transport
Comparative Perspectives on Transportation Security series
Edited by Joseph S. Szyliowicz, Luca Zamparini, Genserik L.L. Reniers and Dawna L. Rhoades
Chapter 8: Security improvement potential of Rail Baltica investment
Buchhofer (1995) predicted that the Baltic States’ (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) railways would lose their traffic volume to road transport, particularly in the freight segment. The reason for the loss was that the countries’ roads were in much better condition than the rail system after the Soviet era. Road traffic levels have in fact grown enormously since this prediction (Ojala et al., 2005; Kovacs and Spens, 2006; Hilmola, 2011). Buchhofer (1995) also argued that only one north–south corridor would exist. This is the Rail Baltica. Kovacs and Spens (2006) continued Buchhofer’s research and concluded that road volumes had increased significantly during this time period, but questioned the sustainability of this trend since maintenance and investments to the road infrastructure had been minimal (compared to volume growth). Kovacs and Spens (2006) did not see much potential for rail-based solutions and were a little skeptical of the Rail Baltica project, as it lay in 27th place in the TEN-T priority list of the EU’s railway/road projects. Research into road transport has continued (Keshkamat et al., 2009; Komornicki and Miszczuk, 2010). Keshkamat et al. (2009) proposed that the Rail Baltica line be located near the Via Baltica road to enable intermodality in the region.
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