National Economic Impact Analysis of Terrorist Attacks and Natural Disasters

National Economic Impact Analysis of Terrorist Attacks and Natural Disasters

Edited by Harry W. Richardson, Jiyoung Park, James E. Moore II and Qisheng Pan

This book develops a national economic impact model to estimate the effects of simulated terrorist attacks and natural disasters on individual US States and economic sectors. The model, called NIEMO (The National Interstate Economic Model) looks at interindustry relationships and interregional trade. It is highly disaggregated making the model very accurate. The authors examine potential attack targets including theme parks, sporting events, bridges and tunnels in the national highway system as well as attempts to shoot down airplanes or spread foot-and-mouth disease. Covered natural disasters are almost all real world: Hurricane Katrina, the Joplin Tornado, the Gulf Oil Spill and Hurricane Sandy. The effects on State economies caused by the closing international borders in response to a global pandemic is also examined.

Chapter 4: Theme parks

Harry W. Richardson, JiYoung Park, Peter Gordon, James E. Moore II and Qisheng Pan

Subjects: economics and finance, methodology of economics, environment, disasters, politics and public policy, political economy, terrorism and security

Extract

The motive for this chapter was to address this very serious question. No theme park has been attacked. Many of the terrorists are technically incompetent with respect to bomb and explosives technology. Far worse is that they do not understand what binds us. This chapter is not intended as a road map for terrorists. Rather, it is one of a series of studies by our group on the economic impact of a variety of hypothetical terrorist attacks in the United States. This research suggests that even a single attack on a theme park may have widespread national economic not to mention human repercussions. The results imply that significant prevention strategies may be justified. Our research studies use either or both of two economic impact models, the Southern California Planning Model (SCPM) and the National Interstate Economic Model (NIEMO). This research uses only the latter model and traces the interregional economic effects of attack scenarios on major theme parks (13, including two clusters) located in a modest number of states (eight).

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