Chapter 3: Agricultural Trade Reform after the Asian Recession: A Bridge Too Far?
3. Agricultural trade reform after the Asian recession: a bridge too far? Rod Tyers and Yongzheng Yang* Since 1997, Asian growth has stalled following a combined ﬁnancial and currency crisis that brought on what is referred to here as the ‘Asian recession’.1 Several of the developing economies that had earlier been major contributors to both Asian growth and commodity imports experienced very substantial contractions associated with a surge of insolvencies following capital ﬂight and unexpectedly large currency depreciations. This saw their capital accounts shift from surplus to deﬁcit and necessitated dramatic contractions in imports. Accordingly, global demand for agricultural commodities contracted and international commodity prices fell. In the North, that is, the older industrial economies of Europe, North America and Australasia, some governments did not pass these price declines through to farmers and so the level of agricultural protection rose. The bridge to reforms envisaged during the Uruguay Round has therefore grown longer. Even in countries whose governments have allowed the eﬀects of the Asian recession to pass through to their farmers, further trade reform will have to come on top of already costly adjustment. Moreover, the eﬀects of the Asian recession are unlikely to be fully reversed by the now ongoing recovery. Although output and asset prices in Asia have begun to recover, the crisis-induced reversals in Asian capital accounts remain. This redistribution of global investment could well extend well into the negotiation period of the Millennium Round (Krugman, 1999a). This chapter ﬁrst explores why the...
You are not authenticated to view the full text of this chapter or article.
Elgaronline requires a subscription or purchase to access the full text of books or journals. Please login through your library system or with your personal username and password on the homepage.
Non-subscribers can freely search the site, view abstracts/ extracts and download selected front matter and introductory chapters for personal use.
Your library may not have purchased all subject areas. If you are authenticated and think you should have access to this title, please contact your librarian.