Studies in Modelling and Decision Support
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Edited by M. A. Quaddus and M. A.B. Siddique
Chapter 3: Modelling Long-Term Sustainability
Kaoru Yamaguchi1 Introduction In the book Beyond Walras, Keynes and Marx (Yamaguchi, 1988) I tried to synthesize three economic paradigms in the industrial age: neoclassical, Keynesian and Marxian, under a general equilibrium framework, and presented a new economic paradigm suitable for the information age. Through the work, my interest has gradually shifted toward sustainability of the new economy. This shift of interest resulted in the book Sustainable Global Communities in the Information Age (Yamaguchi, 1997), in which I have contributed a chapter entitled ‘Sustainability and a MuRatopian Economy’. In the chapter, sustainability is newly defined in terms of physical, social and ecological reproducibility from a general equilibrium point of view developed in Yamaguchi (1988). At that time, I had no tools or software to enable me to model my framework of sustainability for further computational analysis and simulation. Soon afterwards, I happened to encounter the book Beyond the Limits (Meadows et al., 1992), which explores world sustainability by applying simulation results of the World3 model. The model was constructed by computer software called STELLA, which runs on Macintosh. I was amazed by its ability to build complicated models easily, and gradually became interested in the software itself, which can handle complex socioeconomic dynamics without knowing computer languages such as C and C++. The World3 model was an extended version of the World Model, which was originally developed by Jay Forrester in his book World Dynamics (Forrester, 1971). The original model was created by computer software called DYNAMO Compiler. The dynamic...
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