Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks

Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks

Edited by Gabriel Fagan and Julian Morgan

This book provides a description of the main macroeconomic models used by the European Central Bank and the euro area national central banks (Eurosystem). These models are used to help prepare economic projections and scenario analysis for individual countries and the euro area as a whole.

Chapter 9: Mascotte: the Banque de France forecasting model

V. Brunhes-Lesage

Subjects: economics and finance, econometrics, money and banking


Jean-Pierre Villetelle, Olivier de Bandt and Véronique Brunhes-Lesage 1 INTRODUCTION: HISTORY OF THE MODEL AND INFORMATION ON ITS DEVELOPMENT The project of the first macroeconometric model developed at the Banque de France was launched in the early 1970s (Plihon, 1979; Maarek and Thoraval, 1980). This model, called at that time ‘Monnaie–Crédit–Change’ (MC2), was finalized in the mid-1980s. It was explicitly designed as a tool for performing detailed macroeconomic projections, highlighting the consequences of macroeconomic policy decisions (especially monetary policy decisions) and analysing the current macroeconomic developments. Since then, the main objectives of this type of model at the Banque de France have hardly changed and the macroeconometric model described in this section is, in this sense, one of the successors of MC2. Many reasons led to the revision of the model. Among them, the regular change in the database due to the rebasing of the National Accounts is always a natural time for an in-depth reconsideration of the specifications and the estimation of the model as a whole. The release of ESA-79 data thus gave rise to the specification of a model called the ‘Modèle de la Banque de France’ (referred to as the ‘BdF model’, Economie et Prévision, 1998; Irac and Jacquinot, 1999). The release of ESA-95 data was a chance to improve further the BdF model. This led to the estimation of the Mascotte model ‘Modèle d’analyse et de prévision de la conjoncture trimestrielle’ (‘quarterly analysis and forecasting...

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