Chapter 11: Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland's model
11. Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland’s model Kieran McQuinn, Nuala O’Donnell and Mary Ryan 1 INTRODUCTION The Irish component of the MCM (multi-country model) is estimated and maintained within the Economic Analysis, Research and Publications (EARP) department of the Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). The ﬁrst edition of the model was initially estimated by a team of economists1 between April 1998 and January 1999 over the period 1980–95 with quarterly ESA-79 data. An overview of the model is given in McGuire and Ryan (2000). The model is currently backward-looking, with expectations entering implicitly through lagged values of variables. To date, this version of the model has been used for the simulation exercises requested by the diﬀerent working groups of the ECB and for domestic purposes. Between 2002 and 2003, the model was re-estimated over the extended period 1980–99 again with interpolated quarterly ESA-79 data. At the time of writing, the model is being reprogrammed in TROLL. The model currently has two main uses. It is used, ﬁrstly, as an input into forecasting exercises conducted by EARP and, secondly, for the analysis of diﬀerent scenarios both for internal and external audiences. The model forms an integral component of the Irish input into the ESCB broad macroeconomic projection exercise (BMPE) conducted by EARP. The model was ﬁrst used as part of such an exercise in the spring of 2000. In this instance a non-model forecast was inputted as an update to...
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