Shaping Climate Change Policy
ESRI Studies Series on the Environment
Lisa Ryan and Hal Turton
Chapter 4: Modelling Transport Technology and Fuel Choice in a Long-term Scenario with ERIS
Lisa Ryan and Hal Turton
Any possible transition towards a sustainable passenger transport system cannot occur in isolation to developments in the overall energy system. Such a transition requires that both suitable technologies and fuels be available in suﬃcient quantities and at the right time. Looking at fuel production, a transition away from fossil fuels to cleaner energy carriers, such as hydrogen, may require fundamental changes in fuel production and distribution infrastructure. The emergence of a radically diﬀerent fuel production and delivery system itself is potentially a more signiﬁcant development than a shift in the dominant automobile technology. Accordingly, any assessment of the potential of vehicle technologies needs also to account for other developments in the energy system. This is also the case with technology development, where many of the potential new automobile technologies, such as fuel cells, are likely to undergo commercialization initially in other applications, before they achieve signiﬁcant penetration in the automobile market (for example, see Barreto et al., 2003). To ensure that these factors are considered in our analysis we employ the detailed energy-systems model ERIS (Energy Research and Investment Strategies), a ‘bottom-up’ optimization model that includes representation of technologies and technology dynamics. This model is used to construct and explore energy and transport system developments in the E3 scenario that we began deﬁning in Chapter 2. ERIS is a global multiregional model that endogenizes technological learning curves (see Turton and Barreto, 2004; Kypreos et al., 2000; Barreto and Kypreos, 2000; Barreto and Kypreos, 2004a). It...
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