Sustainable Automobile Transport

Sustainable Automobile Transport

Shaping Climate Change Policy

ESRI Studies Series on the Environment

Lisa Ryan and Hal Turton

Transport, and in particular road transport, represents a significant global threat to long-term sustainable development, and is one of the fastest-growing consumers of final energy and sources of greenhouse gas emissions. In this book, long-term energy–economy–environment scenarios are used to identify the key technological developments required to address the challenges passenger car transport poses to climate change mitigation and energy security. It also considers possible targets for policy support and examines some of the elements that contribute to the significant levels of uncertainty – particularly social and political conditions. The book then builds on this long-term scenario analysis with a broad review of recent empirical examples of relevant policy implementation to identify near-term options for the passenger transportation sector which may promote a shift towards a more sustainable transport system over the longer term.

Chapter 4: Modelling Transport Technology and Fuel Choice in a Long-term Scenario with ERIS

Lisa Ryan and Hal Turton

Subjects: asian studies, asian economics, economics and finance, asian economics, transport, environment, asian environment, climate change, environmental sociology, transport, urban and regional studies, transport

Extract

Any possible transition towards a sustainable passenger transport system cannot occur in isolation to developments in the overall energy system. Such a transition requires that both suitable technologies and fuels be available in sufficient quantities and at the right time. Looking at fuel production, a transition away from fossil fuels to cleaner energy carriers, such as hydrogen, may require fundamental changes in fuel production and distribution infrastructure. The emergence of a radically different fuel production and delivery system itself is potentially a more significant development than a shift in the dominant automobile technology. Accordingly, any assessment of the potential of vehicle technologies needs also to account for other developments in the energy system. This is also the case with technology development, where many of the potential new automobile technologies, such as fuel cells, are likely to undergo commercialization initially in other applications, before they achieve significant penetration in the automobile market (for example, see Barreto et al., 2003). To ensure that these factors are considered in our analysis we employ the detailed energy-systems model ERIS (Energy Research and Investment Strategies), a ‘bottom-up’ optimization model that includes representation of technologies and technology dynamics. This model is used to construct and explore energy and transport system developments in the E3 scenario that we began defining in Chapter 2. ERIS is a global multiregional model that endogenizes technological learning curves (see Turton and Barreto, 2004; Kypreos et al., 2000; Barreto and Kypreos, 2000; Barreto and Kypreos, 2004a). It...

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