Shaping Climate Change Policy
ESRI Studies Series on the Environment
Lisa Ryan and Hal Turton
In this chapter we examine whether a sustainable energy and transport system can emerge under the scenario outlined in Chapter 2, and analyse the energy and transport system developments necessary to realize longterm sustainable development. Speciﬁcally, we investigate the technical potential over the long term of new technologies and fuels to oﬀset the environmental and resource-depletion impacts of an energy and mobility scenario that incorporates the impact of increasing incomes (with many of the more signiﬁcant energy and mobility challenges emerging in today’s developing world regions). In addition to identifying the features of a sustainable transport system, this allows us to assess whether there is a place for, and explore the implications of, high levels of private mobility in a sustainable-development scenario. This chapter brings together the transport demand scenario described in Chapter 2, the information on technologies described in Chapter 3 and the modelling framework outlined in Chapter 4. Unlike other studies employing scenario analysis, which often present, ﬁrst, a baseline or business-as-usual scenario, in this chapter we turn ﬁrst to the exploration of a sustainable development and transport scenario. The primary reason for this approach is that our main interest is how a sustainable transport system might emerge. However, this approach was chosen also because so-called ‘baseline’ scenarios assume a certain set of policies (or, more usually, the complete absence of policies), which are no more realistic than an alternative policy scenario (even over relatively short timeframes). More generally, presenting scenarios as ‘business-as-usual’ may unintentionally...
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