Shaping Climate Change Policy
ESRI Studies Series on the Environment
Lisa Ryan and Hal Turton
Transport contributes greatly to global greenhouse gas emissions and is forecast to remain a signiﬁcant source of concern in this regard in the future. Some of the possible implications, and ways to address these concerns, were presented in a number of scenarios in Chapters 5 and 6, modelled under various assumptions. For instance, the main scenario shown in Chapter 6 estimates potential energy and transport system development, and greenhouse gas emissions in the future, under the assumption that no policies to address sustainable development are pursued, and market forces alone determine energy and transport system characteristics. Other scenarios, such as that presented in Chapter 5, illustrate the potential impact that a more aggressive policy approach to greenhouse gas abatement and sustainable development can have on technological change, leading to eﬃciency improvements, adoption of new vehicle technologies and fuel switching. The divergence in future greenhouse gas emissions from transport between these scenarios is signiﬁcant, and the analysis in the previous chapters tells us what kind of a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions can be anticipated if improvements in technology are achieved. However, the scenarios themselves do not provide speciﬁc information on the best way to achieve the technological changes required for longer-term sustainability. The model tells us what kind of technological change is necessary to achieve greenhouse gas emissions mitigation from road transport at least total system cost, but not which policy instruments will achieve this goal most eﬀectively, taking into account transaction costs, political feasibility...
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