The Making of National Economic Forecasts

The Making of National Economic Forecasts

Edited by Lawrence R. Klein

This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently – at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly – depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material.

Preface

Edited by Lawrence R. Klein

Subjects: economics and finance, behavioural and experimental economics, econometrics, financial economics and regulation

Extract

This volume focuses on methods and some recent estimates for predicting macroeconomic results for national economies around the world. The economies of the world, as they might be listed in major multinational economic reports from institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank or the United Nations, are very numerous – more than 200 – but these sources do not provide explicit national accounting details and recent performance results for all of them. They do, however, pay attention to major interesting performance results for between 150 and 200. Naturally, the largest economies of the world are given separate treatment. These include the USA, Japan, Germany and China, the four largest in that order, although China is moving forward in ‘leapfrog’ style. Another feature of the various chapters in this book is that the methods being used are generally applicable to countries in North America, Asia, Europe and Latin America. In Asia, where superior macroeconomic performance is now taking place, the apparent competition for economic stardom is between China and India. India has been one of the moststudied countries in the world, ever since achieving independence from the UK, but its hugely successful economic expansion did not get under way until a few years ago, when it appeared that India was becoming a major factor in outsourcing of valuable economic services, using information technology (IT) software in building up export activity. This recent burst of activity may not seem, by itself, to put India in a position for special consideration as...