Chapter 7: A High-frequency Forecasting Model and its Application to the Japanese Economy
Yoshihisa Inada INTRODUCTION The purpose of this chapter is to evaluate the weekly forecast performance of the Japanese economy by a high-frequency forecasting model that the author developed at the Department of Economics at Ritsumeikan University. In the following pages we first explain the development of the postwar Japanese economy for better understanding of the current Japanese economy. Then we explain the features of our high-frequency model and the forecast method in Section 2. We introduce the application to the Japanese economy of high-frequency model building based on the history of the method of estimating the preliminary figures of quarterly GDP in Section 3, followed by the presentation of a forecasting model. The forecast accuracy of the Japanese high-frequency model is evaluated in Section 4. Recent examples of forecasts based on the high-frequency model are shown in Section 5. Finally, the development of the highfrequency model forecast in the future is discussed. 1. DEVELOPMENT OF THE POSTWAR JAPANESE ECONOMY The Japanese economy in the postwar era can be divided roughly into five periods. First, the era from the end of the war to a full-fledged high growth period is explained in ‘Postwar recovery, 1945–55’. It was in 1955 that the industrial output exceeded the peak of prewar days. The second is the ‘High-growth period, 1956–73’ that continued, and ended with the first world oil crisis. The third period is an ‘Adjustment period after the collapse of high growth, 1974–91’, followed by a shift from high growth to...
You are not authenticated to view the full text of this chapter or article.
Elgaronline requires a subscription or purchase to access the full text of books or journals. Please login through your library system or with your personal username and password on the homepage.
Non-subscribers can freely search the site, view abstracts/ extracts and download selected front matter and introductory chapters for personal use.
Your library may not have purchased all subject areas. If you are authenticated and think you should have access to this title, please contact your librarian.