The Making of National Economic Forecasts

The Making of National Economic Forecasts

Edited by Lawrence R. Klein

This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently – at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly – depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material.

Chapter 8: The Making of National Economic Forecasts: South Korea

You Chan ‘Kevin’ Chung

Subjects: economics and finance, behavioural and experimental economics, econometrics, financial economics and regulation

Extract

You Chan ‘Kevin’ Chung OVERVIEW OF SOUTH KOREA (SEE BOX 8.1) South Korea’s economy, according to the 2008 World Bank report, is ranked fourteenth in the world in terms of gross national income.1 In terms of per capita gross national income, South Korea is ranked as forty-ninth in the world.2 It is an impressive statistic considering that this was achieved in a little over half a century, after the devastating aftermath of the Korean War in 1953, which resulted in the separation of the peninsula into two nations with virtually no infrastructure left. This rapid BOX 8.1 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● SOUTH KOREA AT A GLANCE Full name: The Republic of Korea Population: 48.4 million (UN, 2006), still growing Capital: Seoul Area: 99 sq. km (38 345 sq. miles) Major language: Korean Major religions: Buddhism, Christianity Life expectancy: 75 years (men), 82 years (women) (UN) Monetary unit: won Main exports: Electronic products, machinery and transport equipment Gross national income per capita: US$17 690 (World Bank, 2008, p. 15) Internet domain: .kr International dialling code: 182 Source: BBC.com (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/country_ profiles/1123668.stm) 198 The making of national economic forecasts: South Korea 199 development of South Korea is exemplified by its membership in OECD in 1996 and its becoming one of the world’s largest producers of semiconductors by conglomerates, such as Samsung and LG, while Hyundai and Kia and Daewoo (Now GM–Daewoo) have become significant automobile producers and exporters. South Korea is also known for heavy industry, producing steel and other basic products....

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