Edited by Matthias Ruth and Brynhildur Davidsdottir
Chapter 10: Understanding and Shaping the Evolution of Sustainable Large-Scale Socio-Technical Systems
Igor Nikolic, Gerard P.J. Dijkema and Koen H. van Dam 10.1 INTRODUCTION The focus of this chapter is on the creation of a framework for modeling and simulating the growth, evolution and dynamics of regional industrial clusters. Why is this relevant? Currently the world is experiencing dramatic and rapid change. Regional industrial clusters dominated by process industry, such as the Rotterdam-Rijnmond area and Groningen Seaports in the Netherlands, the German Ruhr Area, the Antwerp region in Belgium, Le Havre in France and Teesside in the United Kingdom that largely evolved in the twentieth century must find a way to make timely adaptations to novel and stringent ecologic, economic and supply chain pressures and demands. These include, amongst others, the nascent reduced availability of cheap fossil feedstock, dwindling of suitable metal ore resources, dilution of metal stock, limits to or penalties on CO2 emissions, and global competition for feedstock and commodity, specialties and pharmaceuticals markets (Verhoef 2004; Dijkema 2004). The objective of this chapter is the creation of a framework that will support systematic and rational shaping of sustainable networked industrial systems on a regional scale. One may also understand this work as a plea to recognize and study the effects of the decentralization of decisions that determine network growth. The work presented in this chapter represents the theoretical background of a decision support tool developed, amongst others, in the course of the CostaDue project (Dijkema and Stikkelman 2006). Due to the confidential nature of the underlying project data, all specific...
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