Chapter 6: Modelling the Impact of Double Hull Technology on Oil Spill Numbers
1 David Glen 6.1 Introduction The purpose of this chapter is to present a model of the number of oil spills recorded in the International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation (ITOPF) database (ITOPF, 2008), with a view to determining whether or not the various changes in the regulations governing the operation of oil tankers, combined carriers and barges have impacted on the reported numbers of spills. In a paper on the ITOPF website, Hujier (2005) wrote that: ‘It is difficult to identify any one factor which contributes to the decline in overall volume and frequency of spills, rather it is considered to be the result of a range of initiatives taken by governments and the shipping industry’ (Hujier, 2005: 1). Whilst this may be true, it may be possible to at least determine whether certain changes in the nature of the tanker market can be shown to have statistically significant effects, and this is the focus of this chapter. Reviewing the salient literature shows that there are a number of factors that could be potential explanatory variables from a time series perspective, and that Hujier’s comment is misplaced. The estimated model is then used to measure the number of spills that would have occurred had the introduction of double hull technology (one of the initiatives), not been made mandatory. 6.2 Literature review This chapter focuses specifically on studies examining possible determinants of oil spill numbers themselves, rather than the extensive literature on the economics of pollution control and on modelling accidents....
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