Chapter 10: Climate Change and Human Security Issues in the Asia–Pacific Region
Malcolm McIntosh and Tapan Sarker The impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed – the poorest countries and people will suffer the earliest and most. And if and when the damages appear it will be too late to reverse the process . . . Such temperature changes would take us into territory unknown to human experience and involve radical changes in the world around us . . . The analysis of climate change requires, by its nature, that we look out over 50, 100, 200 years and more. Stern Review on The Economics of Climate Change 10.1 INTRODUCTION Global climate change is one of the biggest threats over the coming century (van Lieshout et al. 2004). According to the United Nations (UN), the world’s population will have increased by one-third – to 9 billion – by 2050. More than 90 per cent of this growth will take place in developing countries (Werz and Manlove 2009). It is also estimated that, due to the effects of global warming, approximately 200 million people will be newly mobilised as climate migrants by 2050. This increased migration will very likely affect human security in the developing countries, particularly in the vulnerable Asia–Pacific region (Woodward 1998; CSIRO 2006). The Asia–Pacific region already encounters a number of challenges to human security. How might the future effects of climate change interact with these human security challenges? Compared with other parts of the world, the Asia–Pacific region experiences a comparatively high number of ethnopolitical and armed conflicts (Reilly 2002). This can be attributed...
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