New Horizons in Environmental Economics series
FORECASTING Applying an EKC framework, we aimed to show basic forecasting results of Chinese pollution. It is not surprising that resource uses and pollution emissions are growing much faster than anticipated. Considering China’s recent economic growth, it is important to apply the most recent economic data to forecast future scenarios. In this concluding chapter, we show the forecasting results using detailed province-level information from within China. Following an EKC framework, results up to 2025 are provided. The emission data is produced by the following equation: ln Ek 5 C1 1 a1 ln Eit21 1 a2 (ln GSPit) 2 1 a3 (ln GSPit) 3 it 1 a4 ln GSPit 1 gi 1 eit, where i is the province, t is the time and GSP indicates per capita real GSP. The E is each of per capita SO2, dust, soot, COD, coal, and fresh water. As discussed in previous chapters, these are important indicators for environmental management. For example, SO2 gas is produced not only from anthropogenic sources such as the burning of fossil fuels but also from natural sources such as transboundary movement. Key factors that affect emissions are size of economic growth and population in each province. Table 13.1 lists the 12 scenarios of economic environment and population change. In scenarios 1–3, changes in population are not considered. Average economic growth rate over the past five years (that is, 1999–2003) is 9.43 percent per year. In scenario 1, the growth rate is assumed to continue until 2025. In...
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