Forecasting Urban Travel

Forecasting Urban Travel

Past, Present and Future

David E. Boyce and Huw C.W.L. Williams

Forecasting Urban Travel presents in a non-mathematical way the evolution of methods, models and theories underpinning travel forecasts and policy analysis, from the early urban transportation studies of the 1950s to current applications throughout the urbanized world. From original documents, correspondence and interviews, especially from the United States and the United Kingdom, the authors seek to capture the spirit and problems faced in different eras, as changing information requirements, computing technology and planning objectives conditioned the nature of forecasts.

Chapter 5: Travel forecasting based on discrete choice models, II

David E. Boyce and Huw C.W.L. Williams

Subjects: economics and finance, transport, environment, environmental sociology, urban and regional studies, transport, urban studies


Great strides were made in the early 1970s to develop an approach to urban travel forecasting that involved summing up (aggregating) the probable behaviour of individuals derived from models specified and estimated at the micro-level. For such models, the discrete choice random utility maximising (RUM) framework provided the theoretical and practical foundations for multi-modal forecasting and for exploring the relationship between the structure of models and hypotheses relating to the trip decision process. In this chapter we recount further theoretical and practical developments of this approach. We arrange this material in two parts: sections 5.2 to 5.6 recount developments in the period from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s, while section 5.7 provides a guide to more recent advances.

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