Chapter 5: Travel forecasting based on discrete choice models, II
Great strides were made in the early 1970s to develop an approach to urban travel forecasting that involved summing up (aggregating) the probable behaviour of individuals derived from models specified and estimated at the micro-level. For such models, the discrete choice random utility maximising (RUM) framework provided the theoretical and practical foundations for multi-modal forecasting and for exploring the relationship between the structure of models and hypotheses relating to the trip decision process. In this chapter we recount further theoretical and practical developments of this approach. We arrange this material in two parts: sections 5.2 to 5.6 recount developments in the period from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s, while section 5.7 provides a guide to more recent advances.
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