Forecasting Urban Travel

Forecasting Urban Travel

Past, Present and Future

David E. Boyce and Huw C.W.L. Williams

Forecasting Urban Travel presents in a non-mathematical way the evolution of methods, models and theories underpinning travel forecasts and policy analysis, from the early urban transportation studies of the 1950s to current applications throughout the urbanized world. From original documents, correspondence and interviews, especially from the United States and the United Kingdom, the authors seek to capture the spirit and problems faced in different eras, as changing information requirements, computing technology and planning objectives conditioned the nature of forecasts.

Chapter 9: Tradition and innovation in UK practice

David E. Boyce and Huw C.W.L. Williams

Subjects: economics and finance, transport, environment, environmental sociology, urban and regional studies, transport, urban studies

Extract

In this chapter we describe some of the major developments in urban travel forecasting practice in the UK over the past 30 years, with particular emphasis on recent times. This review examines the refinement of traditional methods as well as significant innovations. The coverage is wide-ranging, but as in Chapter 8 it is necessarily selective. We intend to give a flavour of developments in a country with, according to Shepherd et al (2006b, 313), ‘a strong culture of transport modelling’, albeit one exhibiting wide variations in practice. We do not intend to offer a detailed history, description or critique of modelling practice – tasks undertaken by others (as we discuss below in this section) – but to introduce significant developments and the motivation for them.

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