China’s Economy in the Post-WTO Environment

China’s Economy in the Post-WTO Environment

Stock Markets, FDI and Challenges of Sustainability

Advances in Chinese Economic Studies series

Edited by Lilai Xu

The book explores the implications of both the extension of the market into key parts of the Chinese economy and the integration of China into the global economy. The main focus of the book is on the role and nature of China’s financial system and its ability to transform enterprise and household behaviour and the performance of investment finance, notably in the context of a two-way flow of foreign direct investment. All the extensive chapters highlight the issue of sustainability – some see the incompleteness of market reform as a problem; others are more willing to accept a pragmatic blending of the operation of the free market and government intervention.

Chapter 2: Condition Constraints and Player Behavior in China’s Stock Market

Huaiqing Zhu and Changfeng Pang

Subjects: asian studies, asian economics, economics and finance, asian economics, financial economics and regulation, international economics


Huaiqing Zhu and Changfeng Pan INTRODUCTION China has undergone a process of reform of its non-tradeable shares, but stock market observers are still puzzled by the deviation of the share price from broader macroeconomic trends. Financial economics assumes that the stock market is a barometer of national economic performance. From a long-term perspective, trends in share prices reflect trends in a country’s economy. When an economy moves through the four stages of an economic cycle – recession, recovery, growth and decline – the stock market will simultaneously experience a similar cycle. The reason why the performance of the stock market is parallel to the performance of the national economy is largely due to the fact that a stronger economy reflected by listed companies’ greater profitability, households’ higher income and investors’ positive expectation will usually push up the stock market, and vice versa. In China, however, a very unique phenomenon has been witnessed of severe deviation of stock prices from the macro economy (Pan, 2006). Focusing on the evidence captured in the first half of the 2000s, this chapter discusses the condition constraints placed on the stock market and market players’ behavior under such constraints. The chapter seeks to provide insights into the situation in China, and suggests that, if those constraints cannot be removed and if there are no significant changes in the behavior of players, the Chinese stock market (a government policy-oriented market) is most likely to remain much the same in the foreseeable future. CONDITION CONSTRAINTS IN CHINA’S STOCK MARKET...

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