Economic Forecasting

Elgar Research Reviews in Economics

Terence C. Mills

Please note this updated and revised Research Review is only available online. The link to Buy Book in Print and Find This Book in Your Library is to a previous edition available in print. The previous print edition reprints the full text of many, though not all, of the Recommended Articles and complements the online edition.

Economic forecasting has a long, and at times extremely chequered, history. While forecasts from large-scale macroeconomic models have attracted most attention in recent times, attempts to find temporal patterns in economic data that might enable predictions to be made about future events stretch back to the 17th century. This research review begins by discussing these early attempts at forecasting before moving on to the more current themes of macroeconomic forecasting and policy making, time series forecasting, the econometrics of forecasting, forecast evaluation, forecasting with leading indicators, forecasting in finance and economic forecasting using surveys.

Table of Contents