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Forecasting Labour Markets in OECD Countries

Measuring and Tackling Mismatches

Edited by Michael Neugart and Klaus Schömann

This book offers a wide-ranging overview of the state of labour market forecasting in selected OECD countries. Besides presenting forecasting models, the contributions provide an introduction to past experiences of forecasting, highlight the requirements for building appropriate data sets and present the most up-to-date forecasts available.
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Chapter 5: Projections and Institutions: The State of Play in Britain

Robert M. Lindley


Robert M. Lindley 1 INTRODUCTION Projecting the socio-economy is not just a mix of social science and art; it is also a matter of institutional design. The success of the activity can be as much due to how it is organized as to how it is handled at a technical level. There have been many advances in data collection, storage and manipulation which have helped to make the production process more efficient but it is still the case that some governments, civil servants and social scientists have very ambiguous attitudes to the role of projections in the policy development and delivery systems. In part, this is a reflection of corresponding attitudes to the broader role of scientific research. This chapter examines the state of play in Britain as far as it concerns projecting the labour market, education and training focusing particularly on occupations and qualifications. It deals with both technical and institutional issues at a time when there has been great change in the latter. It thus considers an aspect of policy and practice which is concerned more with facilitating decisionmaking rather than with the content of particular decisions themselves. It also has a bearing on the relationship between the market for information and the markets for labour and learning on which the information is intended to shed light. As background to the main discussion, Section 2 outlines the most important substantive findings from recent UK work on projecting occupations and qualifications. Section 3 goes...

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