This chapter explores the intricate relationship between systems thinking and strategic foresight, proposing a symbiotic interplay between the two paradigms. It delves deep into the conceptual foundations of both fields, highlighting the strengths, differences, and convergences. Systems thinking, rooted in understanding complex interactions and the holistic nature of entities, offers insights into the present system dynamics. Conversely, strategic foresight is oriented towards anticipating future dynamics, providing an avenue to proactively prepare for multifaceted possibilities. Using examples from climate science and policy-making, the chapter underscores the value of combining these paradigms to navigate contemporary challenges. The art of conjecture, as detailed in the chapter, becomes an innovative framework, bridging systems understanding with future-centric conjectures, emphasizing post-reductionist emergence, non-linearity, and trans-contextual synthesis. Collectively, these insights advocate for an integrated approach in understanding and shaping our world, combining the depth of present systems understanding with the breadth of future anticipations.
Barben, Daniel, Fisher, Erik, Selin, Cynthia, & Guston, David. (2008). Anticipatory governance of nanotechnology: Foresight, engagement, and integration. In Edward J. Hackett and Olga Amsterdamska (Eds.), The Handbook of Science and Technology Studies, third edn (pp. 979–1000). MIT Press.
Barile, S., & Saviano, M. (2011). Foundations of systems thinking: The structure-system paradigm. Various Authors, Contributions to Theoretical and Practical Advances in Management. A Viable Systems Approach (VSA). ASVSA, Associazione per la Ricerca sui Sistemi Vitali (pp. 1–24). International Printing. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2044579. Accessed 3 September 2023.
Bas, E. (2022). Why foresight? In Sharing and Collaborative Economy (pp. 5–11). Springer. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-93882-6_2. Accessed 13 August 2023.
Boisot, M., & McKelvey, B. (2006). Speeding up strategic foresight in a dangerous, complex world: A complexity approach. In Corporate Strategies under International Terrorism and Adversity (pp. 20–37). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://www.elgaronline.com/downloadpdf/9781845422417.pdf#page=32. Accessed 1 July 2023.
Bootz, J.P. (2010). Strategic foresight and organizational learning: A survey and critical analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(9), 1588–94. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162510001368. Accessed 11 September 2023.
Burt, G., & Nair, A.K. (2020). Rigidities of imagination in scenario planning: Strategic foresight through “Unlearning”. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 153, 119927. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162519310169. Accessed 3 October 2023.
Capra, F. (1985). Criteria of systems thinking. Futures, 17(5), 475–8. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/001632878590059X. Accessed 29 August 2023.
Dator, J. (1998). Introduction: The future lies behind! Thirty years of teaching futures studies. American Behavioral Scientist, 42(3), 298–319. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0002764298042003002. Accessed 3 October 2023.
Dator, J. (2002). Futures studies as applied knowledge. In New Thinking for a New Millennium (pp. 119–29). Routledge. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780203434536-7/futures-studies-applied-knowledge-james-dator. Accessed 21 July 2023.
Dator, J.A. (2012) International Space University. Social Foundations of Human Space Exploration. Springer; Published in collaboration with International Space University.
Davis, A.C., & Stroink, M.L. (2016). The relationship between systems thinking and the new ecological paradigm. Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 33(4), 575–86. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/sres.2371. Accessed 1 September 2023.
Debora, H. (2005). Philosophical and ethical foundations of systems thinking. https://dspace.jaist.ac.jp/dspace/handle/10119/3842. Accessed 11 September 2023.
Fink, A., & Schlake, O. (2000). Scenario management – an approach for strategic foresight. Competitive Intelligence Review; Published in Cooperation with the Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals, 11(1), 37–45. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/(SICI)1520-6386(200031)11:1%3C37::AID-CIR6%3E3.0.CO;2-W. Accessed 9 June 2023.
Floyd, J. (2008). Towards an integral renewal of systems methodology for futures studies. Futures, 40(2), 138–49. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328707001693. Accessed 21 September 2023.
Guston, D.H. (2014). Understanding “anticipatory governance.” Social Studies of Science, 218–42.
Hammond, D. (2005). Philosophical and ethical foundations of systems thinking. tripleC: Communication, Capitalism & Critique. Open Access Journal for a Global Sustainable Information Society, 3(2), 20–27. https://www.triple-c.at/index.php/tripleC/article/view/20. Accessed 28 August 2023.
Hayden, N.K., Ackermann, M.R., & Backus, G.A. (2017). Complexity Science for Strategic Foresight and Resiliency in (No. SAND2017-6995PE). Sandia National Lab.(SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1648673. Accessed 3 September 2023.
Henry, B.C. (2013). New paradigm of systems thinking. International Journal, 2(5). https://www.ejournalofbusiness.org/archive/vol2no5/vol2no5_2.pdf. Accessed 1 July 2023.
Heylighen, F., & Joslyn, C. (1992). What is systems theory. Principia cybernetica web, 1. http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/SYSTHEOR.html. Accessed 14 July 2023.
Hodgson, A., & Midgley, G. (2014). Bringing foresight into systems thinking: A three horizon approach. In Proceedings of the 58th Annual Meeting of the ISSS-2014 United States. http://journals.isss.org/index.php/proceedings58th/article/view/2278. Accessed July 2023.
Horsman, J.H. (2018). Pathfinding-Foresight and systems thinking. In Servant-Leaders in Training (pp. 139–60). Palgrave Macmillan. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-92961-3_6. Accessed 21 September 2023.
Inayatullah, S. (2002). Reductionism or layered complexity? The futures of futures studies. Futures, 34(3–4), 295–302. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328701000453. Accessed 3 October 2023.
Kaivo-Oja, J., & Stenvall, J. (2013). Foresight, governance and complexity of systems: On the way towards pragmatic governance paradigm. European Integration Studies, 7. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/01ea/6b68f37cd8bdc483882142a01ff591f706cb.pdf. Accessed 11 September 2023.
King, M., Mountney, S., & Timms, P. (2021). Using foresight futures and systems thinking to evaluate digitally enhanced advanced service concepts for a rolling stock company (ROSCO). http://shura.shu.ac.uk/29899/1/SSC2021_Proceedings_final.pdf. Accessed 22 August 2023.
Kuosa, T. (2016). The Evolution of Strategic Foresight: Navigating Public Policy Making. Routledge. https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=keK_CwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=%22sys
tems+theory%22+%22strategic+foresight%22&ots=GK-PqkM5xt&sig=-fI5zWQPTS7V8q_0jymd
Htccomo. Accessed 24 July 2023.
Louie, A.H. (2010) Robert Rosen’s anticipatory systems. Foresight, 12(3), 18–29.
Mastio, E., & Dovey, K. (2021). Contextual insight as an antecedent to strategic foresight. Futures, 128, 102715. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328721000240. Accessed 16 August 2023.
Miller, R. (2006). Futures studies, scenarios, and the “possibility-space” approach. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/think-scenarios-rethink-education/futures-studies-scenarios-and-the-possibil
ity-space-approach_9789264023642-7-en. Accessed 1 July 2023.
Ramos, J.M. (2002). Action research as foresight methodology. Journal of Futures Studies, 7(1), 1–24. https://www.academia.edu/download/29568455/ARandForesightmain.pdf. Accessed 14 June 2023.
Randle, J.M., & Stroink, M.L. (2018). The development and initial validation of the paradigm of systems thinking. Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 35(6), 645–57. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/sres.2508. Accessed 4 July 2023.
Richards, L., & Harfoush, N. (2016). The Master of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation (SFI) at OCAD University. In Creating Innovation Leaders (pp. 187–200). Springer. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-20520-5_11. Accessed 9 July 2023.
Richardson, G.P. (2010). Reelections on the foundations of system dynamics and systems thinking. Foundations, 1, 4. https://www.academia.edu/download/52419820/Foundations_of_STSD.pdf. Accessed 11 September 2023.
Sardar, Z. (1993). Colonizing the future: The “other” dimension of futures studies. Futures, 25(2), 179–87. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/001632879390163N. Accessed 5 August 2023.
Saritas, O. (2006). Systems thinking for foresight. https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=23267449.
Saritas, O. (2013). Systemic foresight methodology. In Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future (pp. 83–117). Springer. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-642-31827-6_6. Accessed 2 July 2023.
Schultz, W.L. (2015). A brief history of futures. World Future Review, 7(4), 324–31. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1946756715627646. Accessed 7 September 2023.
Slaughter, R.A. (1997). Developing and applying strategic foresight. ABN Report, 5(10), 13–27. https://ams-forschungsnetzwerk.at/downloadpub/2002slaughter_strategic_foresight.pdf. Accessed 6 September 2023.
Stichweh, R. (1998). Systems theory and the evolution of science. Systems: New Paradigms for the Human Sciences, 303–17. https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9783110801194/pdf#page=317. Accessed 14 August 2023.
Terchi, K. (2016). Book review: Future Studies: The legal, epistemological and methodological foundations of future foresight. Istishraf for Future Studies, 1(1), 325–9. https://istishraf.dohainstitute.org/en/issue001/Pages/art20.aspx. Accessed 16 September 2023.
Valero-Silva, N. (1995). The philosophical foundations of critical systems thinking. In Critical Issues in Systems Theory and Practice (pp. 187–91). Springer. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-4757-9883-8_25. Accessed 9 August 2023.
Villarroel, Y., & Popper, R. (2010). Can systems thinking and catastrophe theory be used in foresight? The case of Latin American foresight evolution. iFQ, 93. In K. Hauss, S. Ulrich, & S. Hornbostel (Eds.), Foresight– between Science and Fiction (p. 94). Chicago University Press. https://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/bitstream/handle/document/33624/ssoar-2010-hauss_et_al-Foresight_-_between_science_and.pdf?sequence=1. Accessed 20 March 2024.
Wayland, R. (2015). Strategic foresight in a changing world. Foresight. https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-03-2015-0016/full/html. Accessed 3 October 2023.
Institutional Login
Log in with Open Athens, Shibboleth, or your institutional credentials
Personal login
Log in with your Elgar Online account