What is the relationship between history and future? There is a long history of efforts to uncover “laws of history” and, by extension, a “science of history.” Is the procession of events determined, following regular, periodic, repeatable patterns? To answer the question concerning the relationship between history and future, we must first define terms. History has two meanings and, depending on which definition we are using, determines the answer to the question. History refers to both “the past”—all of the events and actions that have occurred prior to this moment—and to the discipline, the particular methodology that studies the past. Those who have claimed to have identified a pattern to the procession of human events usually mean history in this first sense. History also refers to a particular methodology: historians ask questions of the past—the ancient Greek word historíā meant “inquiry”—seek evidence to answer those questions, analyze that evidence by drawing inferences, and then weave narratives from this analysis. Perhaps it is not the study of the past itself that yields insights into the future, but how historians study the past that provides such insights. When the discipline of history is reconceptualized as the study of the behavior of complex, dynamic systems—of both their past behavior and their future behavior—then its usefulness as a tool of anticipation becomes all the more clearer.
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