Chapter 4: Russia-EU energy relations: Most recent stages of long-term fluctuations and future research agenda
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The chapter presents this author’s analysis of Russia-EU energy cooperative trends since 2014 till nowadays. He characterized this cooperation from its very start in 1968 (when the first gas supplies came to Western Europe) by a generalized “peak curve” with the periods of steady expansion, then of slowing growth, then of unstable fluctuations with declining trend, then of rather sharp decline politically motivated by the EU with proclaimed full cancellation of Russia-EU energy relations in few coming years. This author identifies 3 such periods within the declining part of the curve, including the current one started in end-February 2022, and explains some key sub-trends and their reasoning within this periods. He proves his arguments that Russia and EU are interdependent in energy based on long-proved economic relations but, most importantly, on the common cross-border capital-intensive immobile energy infrastructure which was developed from both ends and now makes it an integral part and fundament of the “Broader Energy Europe”. This predetermines the renewal and upgrade of cooperation to be inevitable, from his view, based on pragmatic mutual interests of the parties which should outbalance political differences.

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