Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are central to the Paris Agreement on climate change, allowing Annex II (largely developing) countries to quantify voluntary contributions to the global mitigation effort. Research has been quick to identify the headline NDC figures: if these climate action plans were fully implemented; global mean warming by 2100 would be reduced from approximately 3.6 to 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels. However, beyond these headline mitigation figures, many NDCs are difficult to analyse and few include a contribution from the significant sector of agriculture, forestry and land use change. Brazil is the first developing country to provide an absolute emissions cut as its NDC, seeking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37 per cent below 2005 levels by 2025, and 43 per cent by 2030. The Brazilian NDC is also noteworthy in focusing on emissions from deforestation control and land use change and agricultural intensification. This chapter outlines the optimization modelling to develop mitigation scenarios that underpinned Brazil’s NDC commitment.
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