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Giuseppe Fontana, Riccardo Realfonzo and Marco Veronese Passarella
The 2010s have witnessed a new shift in central banking and, partially at least, in monetary economics and macroeconomic modelling. It is a fact that the endogenous money theory has been gradually clawing back popularity at the expense of the classical theory of interest rates, the financial intermediation view of banks, the money-multiplier story and the quantity theory of money. However, the loanable funds theory and the view of banks as pure financial intermediaries (sometimes coupled with the money-multiplier story) are still sometimes invoked. In addition, the dynamic process of creation, circulation and destruction of money is usually neglected. The point is that money endogeneity is still regarded by many mainstream economists as a mere empirical fact, not a key feature of capitalist market-based economies to be properly explained by a logically consistent theory. By contrast, dissenting economists have further advanced the endogenous money view through: (a) a generalised theory of the endogenous process of money creation; (b) the increasing popularity of modern monetary theory in the public debate; and (c) the development of aggregative stock–flow consistent models and agent-based stock–flow consistent models as an alternative to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models.
Jan Behringer, Sebastian Gechert, Jan Priewe, Torsten Niechoj and Andrew Watt
The euro is irreversible but it needs reform to address well-known design deficiencies and also new challenges. Although progress has been made, further steps are needed, the most important of which are: revision of the fiscal rules, establishing a central stabilisation capacity, and completing the banking union (especially a deposit insurance, a capital market union based around a common safe asset, and improved macroprudential policy). This article sets out the necessary reforms in these areas in detail.
Emiliano Libman and Gabriel Palazzo
This paper highlights the role of external indebtedness and the presence of inflationary inertia in order to assess the effectiveness and sustainability of inflation targeting during disinflation episodes. As the recent Argentinian experience illustrates, a sluggish inflation rate and a significant current-account deficit may make the stabilization process difficult. To illustrate the point, we build a model that shows that, when inflation adjusts fast, the target may be achieved without building too much external debt. But if inflation adjusts slowly, an excessive build-up of external debt could lead to an increase in the risk premium, a sudden shortage of foreign exchange, and the eventual collapse of the inflation-targeting regime.
Edited by Eckhard Hein, Martin Riese and Bernhard Schütz
Michael A. Landesmann
Nicholas Kaldor and Kazimierz Łaski have been two very prominent exponents of Keynesian thinking. They both contributed to the debate on European economic integration, one (Nicholas Kaldor) in the early 1970s, when there were fierce debates about the United Kingdom's entry to the European Communities, and the other (Kazimierz Łaski) in the wake of the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2012, when the European Union and its Economic and Monetary Union were seriously challenged by potential disintegration. Both exponents provided deep and complementary inputs into an understanding of the centrifugal forces at work when a region with a rudimentary federal structure (but an extremely weak ‘central state’) embarks on tight economic integration with an inadequate macroeconomic policy framework in place.
Jan Behringer, Sebastian Gechert, Özlem Onaran and Miriam Rehm
Within post-Keynesian macroeconomics, the Kaleckian streams analysing demand regimes and the Minskyan streams analysing financial instability have proceeded relatively independently. To develop a comprehensive alternative to mainstream economics, post-Keynesians will have to integrate Kaleckian and Minskyan arguments with an analysis of the supply side. This paper gives a partial update on advances in Kalecki-Minsky modelling. First, theoretically, it discusses the notion of pseudo-Goodwin cycles. Second, it presents empirical findings on endogenous debt cycles. Third, it reviews evidence of the relative size of distributional and financial effects on demand. Fourth, it reports results on the drivers of household debt.