Edited by Neil Longley
Brad R. Humphreys, Jane E. Ruseski and Jie Yang
The question of the extent of complementarity between sports betting and spending on spectator sports viewing is addressed in this chapter using Canadian household spending data. They find that spending on betting and spending on spectator sports are indeed complementary. Intriguingly, they also find that betting and spending on sports participation are substitutes. This suggests that further deregulation of sports gambling in Canada could well lead to less physical activity and more sedentary life styles for Canadians.
Edited by Plácido Rodríguez, Brad R. Humphreys and Robert Simmons
Stephen Dobson and John Goddard
A recent popular development in sports betting markets is the emergence of in-play betting where gamblers can post bets online during a sporting contest. Betting products available for ‘live’ or in-play betting include the match result, the exact score and the identity of the next scorer. This market has shown spectacular growth for European football. In a novel contribution in this chapter, the authors investigate the efficiency of the in-play football betting market as applied to exact scores in the English Premier League over two seasons. They compare betting exchange implied probabilities with probabilities generated from a statistical model and find some discrepancies after key events, especially just after a goal is scored or a player is dismissed from the field of play.
Jaume García, Levi Pérez and Plácido Rodríguez
In this chapter the authors pose the fundamental question of whether bookmaker probabilities offer superior predictions of match outcomes to bettors themselves. Their test case is Spanish football and the comparison gamblers are football pools bettors who play a game where they forecast match outcomes. The authors find, first, that there is a favourite-longshot bias in Spanish fixed-odds football results betting and second, bookmakers’ predictions outperform those of football pools bettors.
Rodney Paul and Andrew Weinbach
A significant strand of literature on sports betting investigates how bettors and betting markets respond to winning streaks by players or teams. This literature began with basketball and refers to the ‘hot hand’ effect of in-form players and teams which suggests that bettors and/or bookmakers believe this streak will continue. Do gamblers benefit from backing a player or team that is on a winning streak or would they gain superior returns by assuming that the streak will end in the next game? In this chapter the authors test the ‘hot hand’ hypothesis in betting on Major League Baseball games. Interestingly, they find different results for bets based on the momentum of the team and on individual pitchers. Their results show that the baseball betting market believes in the ‘hot hand’ and there is potential for positive returns for gamblers when betting that a team’s hitting streak will end i.e. bettors would benefit from pursuing a ‘contrarian’ strategy. In contrast, wagering on pitchers with successful streaks delivers superior returns to bets against the streak.