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Alfred A. Marcus and Mazhar Islam

This chapter examines Bayer's acquisition of Monsanto. Monsanto was a company motivated by Malthus' challenge of rapidly growing population and insufficient food, an innovator in agricultural productivity. In acquiring Monsanto, Bayer aspired to be the world's leader in this domain. Its aim was to overcome the demographic dilemma that Malthus posed. DuPont also took up this' challenge of insufficient food to feed a growing population. Prior to Bayer's acquisition by Monsanto, Monsanto and DuPont engaged competitively to determine who would assume global leadership in agricultural productivity. This chapter therefore also traces the competitive rivalry between Monsanto and DuPont. It then delves into the setbacks Bayer faced after the acquisition from the damage suits that came from Monsanto's Roundup herbicide. The main point of the chapter is to highlight the advances and challenges of companies which try to take advantage of global demographic challenges.

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Alfred A. Marcus and Mazhar Islam

Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, Israel, Iran, and Mexico are middle aged nations. Their average median age in 2018 was about 31 years old. Despite the fact that these countries have balanced populations, not all have reaped the benefits. Rather, a number of them suffer from "midlife crises" of bellicosity and corruption. Though not burdened as much by caring for the elderly or supporting the young, none seems completely on-track. This chapter's purpose to examine demographic and related trends in these countries and to explore ways in which they are off-track and why. Almost everyone has a belligerent leader who has skirted the norms of democracy and worked to undermine these norms when in the leader's interest. These developments hold back countries that have positive demographic forces working in their favor. This chapter traces the relationships between demography and politics in these nations and their implications for business.

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Alfred A. Marcus and Mazhar Islam

Between 2010 and 2035, Japan and Germany were projected to lose more than 20% of their working age populations. They were not alone in countries likely to have losses. This chapter examines demographic and other trends in countries with some of the oldest median ages in the world - Japan, Germany, Spain, Taiwan, Russia, the U.S., and China. As these societies age rapidly, the strains on them increases proportionately. The challenge they face is their working age segments must become far more productive. The only alternative is for them to be replenished by immigration. The theme of this chapter is how this group of aging nations reached this point and how they are coping with the dilemma.

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Alfred A. Marcus and Mazhar Islam

Managers considering new business developments in nations with varying age structures are bombarded by a vast array of signals of which demography is just a part. This chapter considers how they might scan and monitor the many signals they obtain and build a reasonable interpretation of what to do. How do they interpret the many signals they receive and find patterns among them, inasmuch as the signaling environment they confront is noisy and contains many messages, not all of them consistent? No signal by itself provides definitive answers to questions about the degree to which their firms confront enhanced opportunity or added fear of failure. This chapter assesses how managers try to decipher and come to evaluate signals of different strength and quality in making foreign investments decisions. How do they incorporate the signals they have from the demographic environment into the decisions they make?

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Alfred A. Marcus and Mazhar Islam

When businesses choose to invest in countries - whether for manufacturing, raw materials, or to find new customers - demographic trends are relevant. They have impact on societies' stability and their potential for growth. They affect workforces and capacities to absorb innovative goods and services. The risks associated with demographic change affect supply chains and market entry in countries companies target for global expansion. This chapter reviews literature in the field of demography. It discusses key concepts, specifically arguments about the dividend of youth, the liability of aging, and the importance of technology and immigration to amplify youthful advantages and mitigate aging's risks. It discusses trends in global aging, the decline in worldwide fertility, and the implications of demographic divisions for global security and the balance of power. It concludes with continuing challenges and managerial takeaways. This chapter reviews important trends and relevant divisions in the world's population.

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Alfred A. Marcus and Mazhar Islam

Alfred A. Marcus and Mazhar Islam examine how demographic changes introduce new challenges for businesses, with a focus on how the world today is divided between disproportionately old and young nations. Taking a broad international perspective, the book illustrates how demography affects underlying conditions in nations, presenting the risks and opportunities for businesses as well as a set of concrete obligations they owe to the nations in which they operate.
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Alfred A. Marcus and Mazhar Islam

This chapter considers whether when a population experiences a youth bulge, it influences violent conflict and whether violent conflict tends to fall when youth bulges are followed by busts. Since previous analyses have established a strong relationship between youth bulges and violent conflict, this chapter tries to advance knowledge by analyzing what happens when youth bulges come to an end and are followed by youth busts. This question is particularly relevant and important as population growth in many parts of the world has started to slow and in some cases to actually shrink. To treat these questions the chapter starts with a discussion of dangers for firms of doing business in violence prone nations. Then, it explores arguments for why a relationship should exist between youth bulges, busts, and violence. Next comes an empirical analysis that addresses the degree to which these relationships hold in the countries analyzed from 1997-2005.

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Alfred A. Marcus and Mazhar Islam

The world today is divided between disproportionately old and disproportionately young nations, many of which have demographic deficits because they have small working age populations (15 to 64 years old) in comparison to their elderly (greater than 65 years old) and their youth (less than 15 years old) populations. What impact does this division of the world's nations have on businesses? How should they respond? This book is about signals that global demographic structures send. What types of uncertainty do these disturbances unleash, and how can business organizations best respond to them? Demographic changes introduce new sets of opportunities and challenges. Growth in population means larger markets and may mean increased demand. Population contraction, on the other hand, likely signifies economic weakening, while population movement can infuse new energy into economies that otherwise may be in the process of decline, but this movement also can sow social discord.

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Alfred A. Marcus and Mazhar Islam

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Alfred A. Marcus and Mazhar Islam

Countries with large youthful populations are less stable than countries with aging populations. The deadliest conflicts of the 21st century - the Syrian Civil War, Darfur (Sudan), Iraq, Afghanistan, and Yemen, and the war against Boko Haram in Nigeria - all took place in countries with disproportionately young populations. The countries' economic activities were curtailed, as multinational firms withdrew their investments and further worsened the situation. Unfortunately the poor of the world increasingly were concentrated in these countries with high levels of conflict, and the main effect of these conflicts was to make their situation worse. The purpose of this chapter is to examine demographic and other trends in such youthful nations and in the Palestinian Territories and to draw out the implications for business. The countries of interest are Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Nigeria. The chapter also deals with the Palestinian Territories.