This paper analyzes two instruments – asset-based reserve requirements put forward by Thomas Palley and asset-based capital requirements proposed by Charles Goodhart and Avinash Persaud – regarding their merits in reducing excessive asset price inflation. A theoretical framework of asset pricing based on the ideas of Keynes and Minsky is developed, within which the working of the instruments is demonstrated and analyzed. It is shown that in theory both instruments are able to reduce excessive asset price inflation by reducing the amount of credit money and investment flowing from financial institutions into a booming sector. It is concluded that the effect of asset-based reserve requirements is more predictable and that those are therefore more suitable for the task.
Daniel Detzer and Hansjörg Herr
Daniel Detzer and Eckhard Hein
This study on Germany examines the long-run changes between the financial and the non-financial sectors of the economy, and in particular the effects of these changes on the macroeconomic developments that have led or contributed to the financial crisis starting in 2007 and the Great Recession in 2008/09. The first part provides some descriptive statistics on real GDP growth, on the growth contributions of the main demand aggregates, and the financial balances of the macroeconomic sectors since the early 1980s, and it classifies the German type of development as ‘export-led mercantilist’. The second part examines the effects of an increasing dominance of finance since the early/mid-1990s on income distribution, investment in capital stock, consumption and the current account in more detail. The third part links the long-run developments with the financial and economic crisis and examines the causes of the quick recovery in Germany.
Explaining the Financial and Economic Crises
Edited by Eckhard Hein, Daniel Detzer and Nina Dodig
Nina Dodig, Eckhard Hein and Daniel Detzer
This chapter analyses the long-run effects of financialisation and of the recent financial and economic crises for 15 countries. In order to provide a theoretical framework, we first outline three types of regimes under the conditions of financialisation, namely a debt-led private demand boom, an export-led mercantilist, and a domestic demand-led regime. We then take a look at the sectoral financial balances of the main macroeconomic sectors and at the growth contributions of the demand aggregates for each of the 15 countries, focusing in particular on the trade cycle before the crises. This enables us to cluster these countries according to the typology of regimes and describe the development dynamics among various groups, which were complementary and often mutually reinforcing, in the years leading up to the crises. Subsequently, we focus on the period following the outbreak of the crises and, by considering transmission mechanisms and main obstacles to recovery, analyse how countries in each of these clusters were affected. Finally, we focus on the regime shifts that have taken place in the course of the crises and we discuss the implications of these recent developments for the world economy.