This chapter describes how methods and theories developing within the field of future-oriented technology analysis can be implemented in technology- dependent innovation and research practices. It focuses on and defines one such method – technology-oriented scenario analysis, and departs from the premise that technology and information technologies have become structural drivers of change, and the awareness that any medium- or long-term innovation plan cannot exclude reflections about probable and possible future technological developments. The chapter presents combined theoretical and methodological models that explain the theoretical premises of contemporary methods based on future foresight and future forecast (ranging from traditional expert knowledge and speculative foresight to contemporary “algorithmic predictive computing” and artificial intelligence-based analysis of big data). It argues that technology forecast and foresight methods should be understood as new, necessary, and dynamic processes of organizational intelligence, designed to activate key and dependent actors to participate in a constant innovation process inspired by, and aware of, these possible future technological scenarios. The chapter details the steps involved in technology-oriented scenario analysis, and describes how this method can be implemented and used by businesses or other institutional entities to prepare, or contribute towards shaping, these possible future scenarios.
Flemming Sørensen and Francesco Lapenta
This introductory chapter of the service innovation research methods book introduces the aim and purpose of the book. It describes the theoretical framework that underpins the book and its individual chapters. The framework includes considerations about a) the theoretical and methodological dimensions of service innovation, b) contemporary trends in service innovation and research, and c) society’s expectations of service innovation research. Additionally, the chapter introduces the content of the individual chapters and thus provides an overview of the contents of the book.