In this paper we evaluate critically the popular Mundell–Fleming model from the heterodox standpoint of the exogenous interest-rate approach. We criticize the assumptions of exogenous money supply, ‘perfect’ international capital markets and inelastic exchange-rate expectations. We show that in a more realistic framework none of the main results of the Mundell–Fleming model on the relative effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies is valid, either in floating and fixed exchange-rate regimes. We conclude that, within certain very asymmetric bounds, the Central Bank has the power to determine the domestic interest rate exogenously even in open economy with free capital mobility and that there is no automatic market mechanism to ensure the automatic adjustment of the interest rate and exchange rate to sustainable levels.
Franklin Serrano and Ricardo Summa
Franklin Serrano and Fabio Freitas
This paper aims to show that the Sraffian supermultiplier model provides an alternative closure for the heterodox analysis of economic growth. The new closure follows from the assumption of the existence of autonomous non-capacity-creating expenditures, which implies that the ratio of the average to the marginal propensity to save is an endogenous variable whose determination allows the marginal propensity to invest to determine the saving ratio without the need for changes in income distribution. Provided it is also assumed that capitalist competition leads to gradual changes in the marginal propensity to invest in order to adjust productive capacity to demand, the new closure (in contrast to the Cambridge and neo-Kaleckian closures) allows us to reconcile demand-led growth, exogenous distribution, and a tendency towards normal capacity utilization.
Journal Article
In European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention
- Published in print:
- Apr 2017
Carlos Medeiros and Franklin Serrano
Monograph Chapter
In Monetary Integration and Dollarization
Edited by Matías Vernengo
- Published in print:
- 25 May 2006
Gustavo Bhering, Franklin Serrano and Fabio Freitas
Thirlwall’s law, given by the ratio of the rate of growth of exports to the income elasticity of imports is a key result of balance-of-payments-constrained long-run growth models with balanced trade. Some authors have extended the analysis to incorporate long-run net capital flows. We provide a critical evaluation of these efforts and propose an alternative approach to deal with long-run external debt sustainability, based on two key features. First, we treat the external debt-to-exports ratio as the relevant indicator for the analysis of external debt sustainability. Second, we include an external credit constraint in the form of a maximum acceptable level of this ratio. The main results that emerge are that sustainable long-run capital flows can positively affect the long-run level of output, but not the rate of growth compatible with the balance-of-payments constraint, as exports must ultimately tend to grow at the same rate as imports. Therefore, Thirlwall’s law still holds.
Monograph Chapter
In Thirlwall's Law at 40
Edited by Thomas Palley, Esteban Pérez Caldentey and Matías Vernengo
- Published:
- 23 April 2021
Gustavo Bhering, Franklin Serrano and Fabio Freitas
Thirlwall's law, given by the ratio of the rate of growth of exports to the income elasticity of imports is a key result of balance-of-payments-constrained long-run growth models with balanced trade. Some authors have extended the analysis to incorporate long-run net capital flows. We provide a critical evaluation of these efforts and propose an alternative approach to deal with long-run external debt sustainability, based on two key features. First, we treat the external debt-to-exports ratio as the relevant indicator for the analysis of external debt sustainability. Second, we include an external credit constraint in the form of a maximum acceptable level of this ratio. The main results that emerge are that sustainable long-run capital flows can positively affect the long-run level of output, but not the rate of growth compatible with the balance-of-payments constraint, as exports must ultimately tend to grow at the same rate as imports. Therefore, Thirlwall's law still holds.
Franklin Serrano, Ricardo Summa and Vivian Garrido Moreira
This paper argues that the amended versions (financial wedge and secular stagnation) of the simple pragmatic New Consensus model are as open to theoretical criticism as the original one was. The authors show that: (i) the real natural rate of interest is unlikely to be negative, (ii) it (inconsistently) depends on the Neoclassical investment function drawn at a position of full employment in a model in which the economy is demand-constrained, and (iii) both investment and full employment saving are induced by the trend of demand in the longer run and this challenges the usefulness of the notion of a natural or neutral rate of interest, which (iv) are also subject to the Sraffian capital critique. This is then contrasted with an alternative simple Sraffian supermultiplier model in which the interest rate and the financial wedge are distributive instead of allocative variables, and there is no natural rate of interest since in the longer run there is no trade-off between consumption and investment and also no full employment of labor. As the capital stock adjusts to demand, potential (capacity) saving will be determined by investment, and both investment and capacity saving increase when consumption increases. Finally, we briefly illustrate how this alternative model could begin to make sense of the recent relevant stylized facts.