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John Asafu-Adjaye and Renuka Mahadevan

population growth, output of sugar, changes in real interest rates, tourism, real government expenditure, agricultural productivity, changes in capital stocks, import prices, and exchange rates (see Appendix Table 3A.3). Additional shocks are then added to the deviation closure to simulate the effects of policy scenarios. The model is solved using Version 9 of GEMPACK (Harrison and Pearson, 1996). 3.6 SIMULATION SCENARIOS In seeking to address the issue of how PNG can best utilise its natural resources to achieve sustainable economic development, we undertake three policy

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John Asafu-Adjaye and Renuka Mahadevan

produce a system of linear equations in percentage changes of the variables, which can then be readily solved by matrix manipulations. This, in turn, provides the approximate rates of change in the endogenous variables as functions of the 18 Managing macroeconomic policies for sustainable growth rates of change in the exogenous variables (Dixon et al., 1982). Johansen applied a one-step Euler procedure to solve this system of first-order differential equations instead of using the conventional numerical integration technique. However, the equations in the MSG model

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John Asafu-Adjaye and Renuka Mahadevan

favoured nation tariff reductions (Lee et al., 2008). Others such as Krueger (1999), Lawrence (1996) and Krishna (2003) argue that natural trading partners based on geographical proximity in an RTA do not necessarily produce a net trade creation effect when neighbours have similar endowments. Lee et al. (2008) on the other hand warn that trade gain is much larger for duplicate RTAs than for expansionary RTAs while net tradecreating effects are substantially lower for countries participating in overlapping RTAs due to the possibility of the ‘spaghetti bowl’ phenomenon.4

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Michael Webber

pre-tax profits of TVEs, net of payments of rent and interest. Source: Wuzhong Almanac. Figure 3.5 Enterprise profits and household income as a share of GDP, Mudu township, 1990–2007 added in secondary industry (these estimates depend on the assumed rate of depreciation, and are adjusted for government revenue). According to these series, from about 1990 in the municipality there was a pronounced shift in the allocation of the net social product from labour to property owners. Wages that comprised about 25 per cent of secondary value added in the 1980s fell to

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Michael Webber

and improvements, and interest rates on loans have risen. (Delays will add to interest costs.) Some of the cost is paid by the central government budget and some by the provinces and municipalities that expect to receive water from the project. Most is raised by national debt, bank loans and bonds. Current cost accounting by the Ministry of Water Resources means that the price of water transferred from the Yangzi River to Beijing and Tianjin through the South–North transfer will be at least RMB 18 per m3. This is five to ten times residential water prices in China

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Michael Webber

Xishuangbanna; another ten have been built since then, including two in Zhongdian. No other places in Yunnan had four- or five-star hotels. All are foreign, state corporate, or a combination of the two. Some lowerrated hotels, of which there are at least 300, are private and more widely distributed than the higher-rated hotels. Unrated hotels and guesthouses are overwhelmingly owned by local governments or private individuals. Finally, there are investments in sightseeing activities within localities. These include facility attractions, whether natural or constructed

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Michael Webber

competition between existing systems of organising production and are open to shocks from the natural environment or unrelated social pressures.16 2 THE DAIRY ECONOMY Cattle, sheep, goats and buffalo have long been raised in China for milk, though principally by ethnic minorities, including Mongols. However, large-scale dairying and the kinds of businesses that now produce cows’ milk are both creatures of the economic reforms since the late 1970s. Three shifts are important. To the farmers, the most critical was the redistribution of communal land to peasant households

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Laishram Ladusingh and M.R. Narayana

-free discount rate of return of 3 percent, a depreciation rate of 3 percent, and a rate of return of 6 percent on assets declining linearly to a steady-state interest rate of 4.42 percent in 2300. These assumptions are broadly in line with NTA results on intergenerational transfers (Ladusingh and Narayana, 2011) and with the macroeconomic parameters of economies that experienced demographic dividends in the course of their demographic transitions (Lee and Mason, 2006). 4.2 Economic Lifecycle The age profile of per capita labor income shown in Figure 7.2 reflects a number of

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Edited by Donghyun Park, Sang-Hyop Lee and Andrew Mason

First, the expert contributors argue, Asia must find ways to sustain rapid economic growth in the face of less favorable demographics, which implies slower growth of the workforce. Second, they contend, Asia must find ways to deliver affordable, adequate, and sustainable old-age economic security for its growing elderly population. Underpinned by rigorous analysis, a wide range of concrete policy options for sustaining economic growth while delivering economic security for the elderly are then presented. These include Asia-wide policy options – relevant to the entire region – such as building up strong national pension systems, while other policy options are more relevant to sub-groups of countries.
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Andrew Mason and Sang-Hyop Lee

each cohort is calculated using a constant discount rate. Lifecycle wealth at each age is calculated as the difference between the present value of consumption and labor income at each age. Lifecycle wealth arises in part to meet the needs of children, but our interest here is the lifecycle wealth required to meet the needs of the elderly. Lifecycle pension wealth is defined as lifecycle wealth used to fund consumption in old age. In order to isolate lifecycle pension wealth, we assumed that adults fund their children and then fund their retirement; hence, lifecycle