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Shunsuke Managi and Shinji Kaneko

11. 1 Energy supply-side and demandside effects INTRODUCTION Over the past two decades, the energy intensity of China’s economy has fallen rapidly at a rate unparalleled in any other country at a similar stage of industrialization (Fisher-Vanden et al., 2004; Wu et al., 2005). After 1996, the income elasticity of energy consumption even shifted from positive to negative, accompanied by an unprecedented decline in energy-related CO2 emissions. This shift was contrary to all previous forecasts, which predicted that China’s energy consumption and CO2 emissions

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Shunsuke Managi and Shinji Kaneko

a much higher rate, for a given technology. On the other hand, there are two mechanisms of increasing returns that are innovations in pollution abatement technologies and learning curve mechanisms. The technologies are unlikely to have remained constant in the time period surveyed and therefore we control this technological change factor by an additional variable. Thus, the remaining possibility is the learning curve mechanism. If the production function follows an initially accelerated S-shaped learning curve in the study periods, we are able to observe