Impact and Process Evaluations in Selected European Countries
- Labour Markets and Employment Policy series
Edited by Jaap de Koning and Hugh Mosley
11. Conclusions Jaap de Koning and Hugh Mosley The principal conclusions of our research on active labour market policy (ALMP) and employment transitions can be summarized and discussed under three main headings: 1. 2. 3. the aggregate impact of ALMP on unemployment and particularly on long-term unemployment; variation in ALMP implementation and its impact on programme performance; active policies and employment transitions: an agenda for research and policy. 1 THE AGGREGATE IMPACT OF ALMP Aggregate impact analyses were carried out for ﬁve countries: France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden. All the studies are based on an agreed framework, although there are a number of differences in the approaches followed by the various national research teams. The main features of the data and models used are summarized in Table 11.1. All contributions examine the impact of active labour market policies on transitions from unemployment using aggregate data at the regional level. Moreover, all use simple log-linear and/or linear models in which the ﬁxed effects method is used as the estimation technique in order to cope with the endogeneity problem: in regions experiencing high unemployment more is spent on ALMP than in low-unemployment areas. If the impact of ALMP on unemployment is relatively small, we may observe a positive correlation between the two, rather than a negative one. The overall conclusion of the aggregate impact analysis of ALMP based on the evidence for the ﬁve countries is that there is some empirical support for the claim that ALMP helps to reduce...
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