Five Possible Scenarios for 2010
CHAPTER 6 2/10/00 3:45 pm Page 1 6. What we know about the future The scenarios take into account in an implicit fashion a number of deep-seated trends affecting Europe’s present and future. For those deemed to be the most significant, the Forward Studies Unit undertook a specific analysis, the results of which are presented below. The trends differ as to the degree of certainty that can be attached to each of them. For instance, the demographic trends are ‘set’, in the sense that a change in the projected age structure of the European population would take at least two generations to materialize. The trend of globalization is considered fairly stable in the time frame of the scenarios, but a major politico-economic shock might alter or even reverse its course, and the weight of the different elements driving it may evolve. Other trends, like the emergence of new security threats, are of a different nature in the sense that they are mainly driven by man-made events, taking place at a precise moment in time, and can therefore be more easily influenced by political decisions. DEMOGRAPHY (EUROPE) Regardless of the scenario that one adopts, when it comes to demographic trends the direction of change is clearly foreseeable. Like the other parts of the industrial world, Europe is ageing. This is not an entirely new trend: the population of industrial countries has been growing older for the best part of the last 150 years, due to the decline in fertility and...
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